Anyway, one of NCNB's post fully and precisely describe the situation that are happening to me and my team at the moment.
The post below, every words are purely from NCNB's website:
Week over week, year over year, I find myself wondering if too much knowledge – in fantasy football – is a dangerous thing.
I’d be very interested to hear what other veteran players have to say about this matter as my opinion is that there is a fine line between “preparation” and “research” and “information overload” / “insanity.”
Here’s a perfect example that would never have happened back in the 2005 season when I was playing 6 years ago, because the number of blogs on the internet, and access to up to date team by team news was just impossible to aggregate and source at once:
- Mikel Arteta is suspended for three games. I decide at the beginning of the week to bring in Samir Nasri for my one free transfer. No big deal. They are similarly priced. Arsenal have a home game with Fulham – a team that hasn’t won at Arsenal in something like 100 years. I watched the Aston Villa – Arsenal game last weekend and Nasri / Arshavin looked great. Pretty simple analysis. Did some research (Fulham away record) as well as some gut instinct analysis (watching Nasri this season). Good research. Good time spent. No-brainer.
- What really happens: Samir Nasri features in a Carling Cup game on Tuesday. He picks up a knee injury. Wenger specifically mentions this knee injury in his press conferences / interviews on Wednesday and Thursday – I start to have some minor doubts over transferring Nasri in, but Wenger is “hopeful” he will play. I decide to leave my decision to Friday.
- Friday comes around – I research the previews for every team game in the Premier League. [This is where information overload / insanity may come in] I find out that my striker, Peter Odemwingie, is a doubt with fluid on his knee. I have high hopes for Odemwingie. He is playing at home and facing Newcastle – a team without their regular centre backs – who are both suspended. A team that has been inconsistent. I know, from past research, that Odemwingie was a star in Russia during the cold weather / snowy months. I know he has taken penalties for WBA. He’s cheap. I love him. I have never had a single thought all week of dropping him. He’s fit, it’s cold and snowy, he’s playing at home against a slow Sol Campbell – this is awesome. Or not….
- Information overload causes a panic – if Odemwingie is out, and I have 5M in the bank, shouldn’t I upgrade some part of my team rather than make my initial Arteta to Nasri transfer? Shouldn’t I take Odemwingie out if his knee is such a problem that he’s a doubt. I research further. Odemwingie already missed a chunk of the season earlier with a knee problem. OH NO! Is this a recurrence? Conspiracy theories enter my head. Odemwingie won’t make it! He surely won’t make it…
- On to Plan Z – a last second, panicked, information overload induced transfer leads me to take out Arteta and Odemwingie – and replace them with N’Zogbia and Tevez. I take a – 4 points hit, as required under the rules of the Official Fantasy Premier League for making more than the 1 allowed transfer per week. I watch the early games and Carlos Tevez has scored after 4 minutes. I feel proud. Smug. But then it happens…
- SAMIR NASRI scores two goals. Ends up with 15 points.
- PETER ODEMWINGIE plays on Sunday. Scores two goals. WBA beat Newcastle 3-1.
Due to information overload, I have left 30 points out of my fantasy team. 30 points that could be the difference at the end of the season between losing a mini-league and winning one. Between bragging rights (and cold hard cash) amongst my friends and former college soccer teammates, and being labelled a “pundit” with talk only…
So I ask you, logically (no sour grapes here) – have you ever been a victim of fantasy information overload?
My best seasons in the fantasy game (ironically) were the 3-4 years before I started writing this blog. 2005 – 2008. The reason? Perhaps I spent more time doing the preliminary research and looking after my own team, rather than researching every single player in the league, injury news, form, statistics, etc. in order to provide a commentary on it all – for everyone.
That immense absorption of knowledge has (I hope) helped others in their weekly decision making, but more times than not, it leaves me in an ‘unclear’ state as I make decisions for my own squad. I just rely on too many rumors, injury reports, and speculation that is unclear with this information overload. I can’t ever remember being in an ‘unclear’ state back in 2005 when I finished 1,900th in the world out of 2,000,000 players – The 99.999th percentile.
You get the point.
Sure – losing Odemwingie’s 2 goals and failing to gain Nasri’s 2 goals – a 4 goal swing – or about 30 points – is painful mid-season. And I have to “blame” it on the fact that perhaps too much knowledge is a dangerous thing, but at the end of the day, I continue on in the hopes that this community is enlightened, entertained, and more knowledgeable as a whole, despite the detriment to my overall fantasy ranking.
When all is said and done, I am what I am. I’m a curious person. I love web research. I get excited after making mini statistical discoveries week in and week out, and providing you guys – the community with tips and information – so that just won’t end even if I am providing my mini-league rivals with the ammunition to shoot me down in our own fantasy football conflagration.
There is no “I” in team. I’m here for you. So, in our utopian community that is Never Captain Nicky Butt, good luck to all fantasy managers, and let’s all hope for a Charles N’Zogbia hat trick next weekend.
Cheers.
